Epidemiology Methodology

Our methodology for estimating the population for each disease in emerging markets involves a multi-pronged approach. We employ both our traditional research and analysis techniques as well as methods geared specifically towards understanding the unique features of disease epidemiology in these markets. For each disease we:

• Translate literature sources for epidemiology studies
• In India and China, we model the current disease population based on the percentage of the population living in urban areas versus those living in rural areas
• Forecast future disease trends based on the projected urbanization rate for China and India, as well as the projected changes in disease incidence or prevalence based on lifestyle changes

The process begins with a thorough data collection and evaluation phase:

• Full search of standard medical search engines
• Full search of native-language literature database
• Full search of worldwide health organizations
• Full search of region- or country-specific sources such as national health organizations and governments

We place particular emphasis on identifying, evaluating and translating the most recently published native-language studies and rely on those that include the correct disease definition and that present country-specific population- or community-based, age- and gender-specific data collected on a large-scale regional or national level. We identify all sources and comment on regional variation within these markets.

Using one or more of these studies, we then:

• Identify the appropriate age- and gender-specific incidence and/or prevalence rates for each disease
• Identify overall incidence and/or prevalence rates for urban and rural populations (for India and China)
• Calculate base-year patient population estimates by multiplying the above rates by United Nations population figures
• Project future changes in age- and gender-specific rates based on expected changes in lifestyle and/or historical trends in incidence or prevalence
• Forecast the 10-year patient population (e.g. 2011, 2016 and 2021) utilizing projected changes in the incidence and/or prevalence rate, projected changes in the urban/rural mix of the population and United Nations projected population figures for the market’s population

We detail a number of discrete subpopulations, including age and gender, and for China and India, urban versus rural. As appropriate, we also identify other subpopulations such as disease severity, subtype or comorbidity subpopulations.