Written by: Graeme Green

SUMMARY
Late-stage anti-coagulant data from BMS / Pfizer’s apixaban and Bayer / Johnson & Johnson’s Xarelto will be presented at this year’s European Society of Cardiology (ESC) Congress.  These data should shed more light on how the products will be adopted by this highly lucrative market.
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Written by: Graeme Green

SUMMARY
We believe the anti-platelet market will receive significant attention at this year’s European Society of Cardiology (ESC) Congress.  Of particular interest will be the data for mid-stage products from Novartis / Portola (elinogrel) and Eisai (E5555).  These data will allow for a greater understanding of the sales potential of these agents and the development path they may take to reach the market. There will also be presentations addressing non-responsiveness to sanofi-aventis / BMS’ Plavix; Plavix non-responsiveness may provide sales opportunities for emerging anti-platelets, such as Eli Lilly / Daiichi Sankyo’s Effient and AstraZeneca’s Brilinta.
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Written by: Matt Killeen

SUMMARY
In June 2010, Bristol Myers Squibb and Pfizer announced that they are halting the Phase III AVERROES trial of apixaban for stroke prevention in atrial fibrillation (SPAF) due to the drug’s greater efficacy over aspirin. Results from this trial, which have not yet been disclosed, could trigger an earlier than expected filing for an AF indication in the United States and Europe, and alter the competitive landscape of the SPAF market.
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Written by: Ben Duncan

SUMMARY
At this year’s American Diabetes Association (ADA) conference we will be paying particularly close attention to Roche’s once-weekly injectable GLP-1 analogue, taspoglutide, AstraZeneca & Bristol-Myers Squibb’s SGLT-2 inhibitor dapagliflozin, and Novo Nordisk’s next generation insulin analogue, Degludec, in order to determine their positioning in the market.
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Written by: Kiran Meekings

SUMMARY
With few treatment options and a poor prognosis, ovarian cancer represents a considerable opportunity for drug developers. Currently available chemotherapeutic agents have little impact on improving the prognosis of patients whilst ovarian cancer is one of the few indications with no approved targeted therapies.  However, this may be set to change following the presentation of positive clinical trial results at ASCO.  We anticipate Roche’s Avastin will be approved for the first-line ovarian cancer setting in 2011, adding $1bn to the drug’s sales, whilst encouraging results of Amgen’s AMG386, Eisai’s farletuzumab, AstraZeneca’s olaparib and Sunesis’ voreloxin call for further development.  If the early-stage promise of these first-in-class compounds is substantiated in Phase III, we would anticipate the ovarian cancer market expanding significantly during our forecast period.
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Written by: Kiran Meekings

SUMMARY
A wealth of data presented at ASCO is adding credibility to the idea of using Prolia as a superior treatment option to Zometa in the treatment of skeletal related events (SREs).  Over multiple studies, Prolia has consistently demonstrated superiority to Zometa in prostate cancer, breast cancer and multiple myeloma.  Current controversy surrounds the idea of using bone-resorption inhibitors as a therapeutic treatment option but positive data presented at ASCO showed Zometa to have a direct anticancer effect in multiple myeloma (positive data in breast cancer will also be presented tomorrow), which could be a positive indicator of the bone-resorption inhibitor class as a whole. Although we see little upside for Zometa, due to its near-term patent expiry, we note that approval of Prolia for in the coveted therapeutic indication; prevention of metastases, could add over $1bn to our current forecast for Prolia of $697 in oncology sales in 2016.
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Written by: Kiran Meekings

SUMMARY
Positive data reported today and yesterday at ASCO have expanded the market potential of Revlimid and Rituxan to include first-line maintenance settings in multiple myeloma (MM) and follicular lymphoma (FL) respectively.  Use of Revlimid is currently limited to the second-line MM setting whilst Rituxan is used in the first-, second- and second-line maintenance FL settings.  Approval of both compounds for first-line maintenance therapy will expand the respective drug’s sales bases, as well as the whole market due to a lack of current treatment options.
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Written by: Kiran Meekings

SUMMARY
Data presented ASCO has cast doubt on the use of IGF-R and TRAIL pathway nteractors for the treatment of NSCLC.  However, new data investigating inhibition of the c-Met pathway has been met with physician optimism and suggested c-Met inhibition in combination with EGFR therapy may be an efficacious treatment option.  In particular, data on Arqule / Daiichi-Sankyo’s Phase II pipeline candidate, ARQ 197, demonstrated a pronounced effect on progression-free survival and overall survival.  If these results are substantiated by the planned Phase III trials, we believe ARQ 197 may have blockbuster potential.  Pfizer’s c-Met / ALK inhibitor, crizotinib, also holds tremendous potential for the 4% of NSCLC harbouring EML4-ALK translocations.  The drug’s response rate and safety profile presented at ASCO is impressive, although we note that the limited target population will prevent crizotinib obtaining blockbuster status.
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Written by: Kiran Meekings

SUMMARY
At this year's American Society of Clinical Oncology Conference (ASCO), we will primarily be keeping an eye on Pfizer’s PF-2341066, a first-in-class c-Met and ALK inhibitor for non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC), the NCI’s emerging vaccine gp100, for malignant melanoma, and Novartis and Amgen’s bone-resorption inhibitors Zometa and Prolia, for the prevention of bone metastases.  These drugs are all constituents of eagerly-awaited presentations and are sure to be hot topics of discussion at the conference.
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Written by: Andrew Merron
Analysis of: FDA approves Dendreon’s Provenge (sipuleucel-T)

SUMMARY
Yesterday (29th April 2010), the FDA approved Dendreon’s Provenge (sipuleucel-T) for the treatment of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic, metastatic, castrate-resistant Prostate Cancer. Provenge is the first therapeutic vaccine to be approved for any oncology indication within the seven major markets. Although therapeutic vaccines have been notoriously challenging to develop in oncology, the approval of Provenge represents considerable opportunity and potential for other therapeutic vaccines in oncology indications.  Provenge will become the market sales leader in Prostate cancer owing to the high price and anticipated high patient demand. Read more.