Spectrum

October 2013

The Impact of Economic Growth on Patient Populations: Breast Cancer Populations in Latin America

Report Authors
Alison Isherwood, Ph.D.
  • Pages:31
  • Tables:1
  • Figures:19
  • Citations:24
  • Drugs:0
  • Interviews:0

Introduction:

The rapidly expanding and aging populations of the Latin American (LatAm) countries, in conjunction with the increasing risk of breast cancer, are driving growth in newly diagnosed cases. Yet there is more to sizing the breast cancer patient market than accurately estimating the increasing diagnosed incident cases; the [neo] adjuvant (newly diagnosed stage I-III cases) and first-line drug-treatable populations (recurring stage I-III cases and newly diagnosed stage IV cases) are heavily dependent on the stage at diagnosis, a metric that is also likely to change over time. Due to increased awareness and investment in national breast cancer screening programs, the stage at diagnosis of breast cancer in the key Latin American markets is set to shift dramatically over the next 20 years; the number of patients diagnosed with early-stage disease (stages I and II) is expected to increase from 45-58% in 2010 to more than 70% in 2030 Diagnosed incident stage I-III cases make up the [neo] adjuvant breast cancer population. With incident cases increasing and stage at diagnosis set to shift to earlier stages in Latin America, the [neo] adjuvant drug-treatable population will increase by 51% and the first-line drug-treatable population will increase by 21% over the next 10 years. In the [neo] adjuvant setting in Brazil and Mexico, with HR+ and HER2-overexpressing tumors present in 70% and 22% of Latin American breast cancer cases, respectively, the growth in hormone therapy and HER2-targeted agents is expected to increase by 51% over the next 10 years.

Questions Answered in This Report:

  *   The populations in the key Latin American markets are set to increase over the next 20 years; additionally, the 50+ (high breast cancer risk) age-group will double in size by 2030. The changing demographics in these markets will drive a 69% increase in diagnosed incident cases of breast cancer. To what extent are the growing and aging populations in Latin America driving the growth in diagnosed incident cases of breast cancer?

  *   The Latin American markets are becoming more affluent and are adopting a more-Westernized lifestyle, resulting in an increased risk (incidence) of breast cancer. The risk factors for breast cancer are strongly linked to a more-Westernized lifestyle, which tends to go hand-in-hand with a high GDP. We use expected changes in GDP to forecast the increase in breast cancer risk as well as the increase in diagnosis due to improvements in access to healthcare and diagnostic technologies. Why is the risk of breast cancer changing in Latin America and how do we predict these changes?

  *   Many Latin American markets will enjoy the benefits of broader breast cancer screening and participation over the next two decades, and screening will shift the stage at diagnosis toward early stages. What are the planned improvements in breast cancer screening in Latin America and how will they impact the stage at diagnosis?

  *   With incident cases increasing and stage at diagnosis set to shift to earlier stages in Latin America, the [neo] adjuvant drug-treatable population will increase by 51% and the first-line drug-treatable population will increase by 21% over the next 10 years. When combined, how will all of these changes in the diagnosed breast cancer patient population impact the drug-treatable pools?

Scope:

Markets covered: Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, and Venezuela.

Epidemiology: Country-specific diagnosed incident cases of breast cancer, by stage and molecular subtype. [Neo] adjuvant and first-line drug-treatable breast cancer populations for Brazil and Mexico. Forecasting methods used.

Competitor comparison: Forecasting methods and forecast diagnosed incident cases compared with Globocan.


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