November 2013

Timing Matters: Shifting Opportunities for Drug Developers as Global Populations Age

Report Authors
Donal Minihan M.V.B., Ph.D.
  • Pages:27
  • Tables:N/A
  • Figures:18
  • Citations:1
  • Drugs:N/A
  • Interviews:N/A


Over the next six decades prevalent cases of diseases that are some of the most commercially important opportunities for drug developers will peak and then decline. Germany, Japan, and Russia will be the first markets to experience a peak in cases of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), major depressive disorder (MDD), age-related macular degeneration (AMD), and Alzheimer’s disease.

In this report, we examine trends in key commercial disease markets of Brazil, urban China, Germany, Japan, Russia, and the United States. Population size, demographics, and disease risk interact to determine the size of afflicted populations and the occurrence of peak cases. Opportunities for drug developers rise and fall with disease population trends.

Questions Answered in This Report:

  *   Aging demographics across markets will present unique opportunities and challenges to the healthcare industry as disease populations peak and decline at different times across markets and diseases. What factors are driving the various peaks and declines in diseased populations? Which countries will experience peaks first, and how soon will these peaks occur?

  *   Peak cases will occur at various points—or not at all—depending on the disease and country. Which diseases will peak first, and why? In which countries? Which countries will experience the greatest decline in cases of diseases?

  *   While the overall prevalence of diseases of the elderly increase as a population ages, prevalence of diseases of the young decrease. For which diseases will case counts decrease? In which countries?


Markets covered: Brazil, urban China, Germany, Japan, Russia, and the United States.

Demographic data: Percentage of populations aged 80 or older; Population estimates, 2012, 2042, 2072.

Epidemiology: Alzheimer's disease prevalent cases peaking in Germany, Japan, and Russia; case counts of acute coronary syndrome and Alzheimer’s disease in urban China; trends in prevalent cases in diseases of old versus young in Germany, 2012-2032; asthma total prevalent cases, 2012 to 2032; MDD total prevalent cases, 2012-2072; trends in Alzheimer’s disease total prevalent cases; trends in COPD total prevalent cases; trends in AMD total prevalent cases.

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