Special Reports

June 2014

Patient Flow in Hepatitis C Virus: Changing Treatment Dynamics in China

Report Authors
Youling Guo, Ph.D.
Donal Minihan, M.V.B., Ph.D.
  • Pages:59
  • Tables:6
  • Figures:36
  • Citations:N/A
  • Drugs:13
  • Interviews:50

Introduction:

China has one of the most rapidly growing pharmaceutical markets in the world, as well as a vast, rapidly expanding prevalent population of Hepatitis C (HCV) patients. The key driver of the Chinese HCV market is the increase in the drug-treated population due to the introduction of novel HCV-specific therapies that will be combined in highly effective, all-oral IFN-free regimens. Combined with increasing access to medical care and a burgeoning middle class with growing economic clout, these factors promise fast growth and significant opportunity for multinational pharmaceutical companies.

Questions Answered in This Report:

  *   China has a large prevalent HCV patient pool, consisting of 8.58 million HCV cases in 2013 and increasing to approximately 9.11 million in 2023. The prevalence of this chronic disease remains high owing to the presence of a large existing undiagnosed population and a population of non-responders (i.e., patients who failed previous therapy or relapsed following prior therapy). How will the number of HCV patient populations change between 2013 and 2023? How will the drug-treatment rates change in China during the period 2013-2023?

  *   The current standard of care is pegylated-interferon-alpha (peg-IFN-α) and ribavirin, however, nearly a third of patients diagnosed with HCV do not receive the treatment because they have not responded in the past. What are the factors that drive Chinese physicians’ prescribing habits? What is the size of the current HCV therapeutic market? How do physicians choose between branded Western drugs and Chinese-manufactured equivalents for the treatment of HCV?

  *   Because adverse effects are a major disadvantage of the current standard of care, a significant percentage of patients will likely remain untreated until the launch of IFN-free regimens. The arrival of IFN-free regimens will bring patients who have not responded to currently available treatments back into treatment, thereby significantly increasing the drug-treated population. What are Chinese physicians’ opinions of novel emerging therapies? What emerging therapies will enter the HCV therapeutic market during the 2013-2023 period? What is the largest targeting subpopulation of HCV infection for the emerging therapies?

Scope:

Market Covered: China

Primary research: The analysis of physician insight into current and future HCV medical practice presented in this report is based on face-to-face interviews of 50 hepatologists and gastroenterologists in China.

Patient flow model: Our quantitative analysis estimates the total size of the viremic HCV population and fragments it into subpopulations based on patients’ viremic status, HCV genotype, and prior treatment history. Ten-year annual epidemiology forecasts through 2023.


Search Reports

Mentioned in this report:

  • - Janssen
  • - Gilead
  • - Roche
  • - Merck
  • - Bristol-Myers Squibb
  • - Boehringer Ingelheim
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