Pancreatic cancer is characterized by a very poor prognosis; five-year relative survival is 5%. The disease’s rapid progression, most patients’ poor performance status, and the large number of elderly patients result in lower treatment rates than those of other cancer indications. Therapeutic options for pancreatic cancer are limited. Thus, opportunity in this market remains largely untapped; an agent able to demonstrate statistically significant efficacy compared with that of the standard of care, gemcitabine (Eli Lilly’s Gemzar, generics), will likely gain regulatory approval and enjoy strong uptake. Furthermore, a therapy that demonstrates efficacy similar to that of the FOLFIRINOX regimen but is more tolerable will likely become the new standard of care for the majority of patients and reap significant commercial reward.
Questions Answered in This Report:
The pancreatic cancer pipeline includes drugs from several classes, including modified cytotoxic drugs, angiogenesis inhibitors, immunotherapies, and kinase inhibitors. What targets are generating most interest? Which agents are most promising in pancreatic cancer? How will they compete with established drugs and regimens? What are the key factors likely to influence uptake of emerging therapies?
Treatment options for pancreatic cancer remain limited and inadequate, despite recent developments. What key factors drive physician prescribing in pancreatic cancer? What percentage of patients receive drug treatment? What percentage of pancreatic cancer patients enter clinical trials? Will therapeutic options increase in the future?
Key pancreatic cancer drugs have lost, and are expected to lose, patent protection. What impact will this trend have on the overall market size?
Despite developmental hurdles, several targeted agents are in late-stage development. Will a second targeted agent be approved for pancreatic cancer? What impact could such a launch have on treatment rates?
Markets covered: United States, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, United Kingdom, Japan.
Primary research: 22 country-specific interviews with expert oncologists; surveys fielded to 70 physicians in the United States and Europe.
Epidemiology: Diagnosed incidence of exocrine pancreatic cancer by TNM stage I, IIa, IIb, III, and IV.
Drug-treatable population segments in market forecast: Resectable, early-stage disease (TNM stages I-IIb); unresectable, locally advanced disease (TNM stage III), first line; unresectable, metastatic/recurrent (TNM stage I-IIb) disease, first line; unresectable, metastatic, second line.
Emerging therapies: Phase II: 33 drugs; Phase III: 10 drugs.
Market forecast features: Using a proprietary patient-flow model incorporating mortality, we forecast annualized population sizes and drug sales for all patient segments through 2022.
Alternative market scenarios: Failure of a second targeted agent to launch for the treatment of unresectable pancreatic cancer.