Pancreatic cancer is characterized by a very poor prognosis;
five-year relative survival is 5%. The disease’s rapid progression, most
patients’ poor performance status, and the large number of elderly patients
result in lower treatment rates than those of other cancer indications.
Therapeutic options for pancreatic cancer are limited. Thus, opportunity in
this market remains largely untapped; an agent able to demonstrate
statistically significant efficacy compared with that of the standard of care,
gemcitabine (Eli Lilly’s Gemzar, generics), will likely gain regulatory
approval and enjoy strong uptake. Furthermore, a therapy that demonstrates
efficacy similar to that of the FOLFIRINOX regimen but is more tolerable
will likely become the new standard of care for
the majority of patients and reap significant commercial reward.
Questions Answered in This Report:
The pancreatic cancer pipeline includes drugs from several
classes, including modified cytotoxic drugs, angiogenesis inhibitors,
immunotherapies, and kinase inhibitors. What targets are generating most
interest? Which agents are most promising in pancreatic cancer? How will they
compete with established drugs and regimens? What are the key factors likely to
influence uptake of emerging therapies?
Treatment options for pancreatic cancer remain limited and
inadequate, despite recent developments.
What key factors drive physician prescribing in pancreatic cancer? What
percentage of patients receive drug treatment? What percentage of pancreatic
cancer patients enter clinical trials? Will therapeutic options increase in the
Key pancreatic cancer drugs have lost, and are expected to
lose, patent protection. What impact will this trend have on the overall
Despite developmental hurdles, several targeted agents are in
late-stage development. Will a second targeted agent be approved for
pancreatic cancer? What impact could such a launch have on treatment rates?
Markets covered: United States, France, Germany, Italy,
Spain, United Kingdom, Japan.
Primary research: 22 country-specific interviews with
expert oncologists; surveys fielded to 70 physicians in the United States and
Epidemiology: Diagnosed incidence of exocrine pancreatic
cancer by TNM stage I, IIa, IIb, III, and IV.
Drug-treatable population segments in market forecast:
Resectable, early-stage disease (TNM stages I-IIb); unresectable, locally
advanced disease (TNM stage III), first line; unresectable,
metastatic/recurrent (TNM stage I-IIb) disease, first line; unresectable,
metastatic, second line.
Emerging therapies: Phase II: 33 drugs; Phase III: 10
Market forecast features: Using a proprietary
patient-flow model incorporating mortality, we forecast annualized population
sizes and drug sales for all patient segments through 2022.
Alternative market scenarios: Failure of a second
targeted agent to launch for the treatment of unresectable pancreatic cancer.