Pharmacor

Introduction:

Last Updated 27 July 2010
In 2009, multiple myeloma was the second most commonly diagnosed hematologic malignancy in the United States after non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma. Over the past ten years, significant advances in treatment have been made, but untapped market potential remains for agents that can improve efficacy and tolerability compared with currently available agents.

Questions Answered in This Report:

  *   Three agents dominate sales in the myeloma market: Celgene’s Revlimid (lenalidomide), Millennium Pharmaceuticals/Takeda/Janssen-Cilag/Janssen’s Velcade (bortezomib), and Celgene/Fujimoto Seiyaku’s Thalomid/Thaled (thalidomide). How will patient and market share change over our ten-year forecast period for these principal agents?

  *   We forecast robust annual growth in the myeloma market through 2018. What factors are driving and constraining this growth? When do we anticipate major inflection points in market growth and constraint?

  *   Intense clinical development is under way in myeloma to emulate the commercial success of the three major agents used to treat myeloma. Which agents are in development? Which agents and mechanisms of action are most promising?

  *   Despite the availability of three effective agents for the treatment of myeloma, high clinical unmet need remains. What are the remaining unmet needs in myeloma? Will these needs be satisfied by current or emerging agents?

Scope:

Markets covered: United States, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, United Kingdom, Japan.

Primary research: 17 country-specific interviews with thought leaders.

Epidemiology: Diagnosed incidence and diagnosed prevalence of multiple myeloma. Diagnosed incidence and diagnosed prevalence of monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance. Diagnosed incidence and diagnosed prevalence of extramedullary plasmacytoma.

Population segments in market forecast: First-line, second-line, and third-line drug-treatable populations.

Emerging therapies: Phase II: 36 drugs; Phase III: 7 drugs; registered: 4 drugs.

Market forecast features: Using a proprietary patient-flow model that incorporates mortality, we forecast population sizes and drug sales for first-line, second-line, and third-line patient segments through 2018.

Alternative market scenarios: (1) Velcade captures greater uptake in the maintenance and conditioning setting in the first-line, drug-treatable patient segment. (2) Generics do not launch for Revlimid in Europe and Japan.