Introduction:
Last Updated 11 August 2010 In 2009, as the prevalence of obesity in
the pharmaceutical markets under studyapproached 35%, the
medical costs associated with obesity and its comorbidities presented a major
threat to healthcare systems worldwide. Despite the increasing
patient population, obesity drug-treatment rates are extremely low owing
to the lack of drug options that are efficacious, safe, and well
tolerated. Major-market sales of prescription obesity
drugs have been declining for several years; several brands have been withdrawn
from European markets—rimonabant (Sanofi-Aventis’s Acomplia), benfluorex
(Servier’s Mediator), and sibutramine (Abbott’s Meridia)—and GlaxoSmithKline’s
Alli, an OTC formulation of orlistat (Roche’s Xenical), has failed to reignite
the market. However, three novel therapies are poised to transform the
market in the near future: Arena Pharmaceuticals/Eisai’s lorcaserin,
Vivus’s phentermine/topiramate combination (Qnexa), and Orexigen Therapeutics’
bupropion/naltrexone combination (Contrave). All three agents
offer new mechanisms of action, and Qnexa offers a level of weight-loss
efficacy that has not been observed since the mid 1990s, when the “fen-phen”
combination was in use. We forecast that the launch of these agents and
several others in the late-stage obesity pipeline will greatly
expand the market over the next ten years, resulting in substantially
increased drug-treatment rates. Despite the lack of reimbursement that
continues to constrain the obesity market and the increasing
regulatory challenges that emerging therapies will face, this indication remains
an area of high-growth opportunity for novel agents.
Questions Answered in This Report:
*
Interviewed thought leaders assert that diagnosis and
drug-treatment rates for obesity remain low despite increases in prevalence.
How
much will the launch of new obesity agents affect diagnosis and
drug-treatment rates in the next ten years? Which new agents will have the
greatest impact on growth of the obesity market?
*
Physicians and patients are dissatisfied with the efficacy and
safety and tolerability of currently marketed obesity agents.
Do
experts believe that any of the emerging obesity therapies will be able to
fulfill the unmet need for safe, effective, and well-tolerated obesity
treatment?
*
We forecast that by 2011, three novel agents will launch in the
obesity market, currently dominated by Abbott Laboratories’ Meridia and Roche’s
Xenical. Which therapies in development
have elicited the most excitement from interviewed thought leaders? Which of
these three will dominate the market in the short term, and which emerging
agent will eventually take over as the new market-share leader by the end of
the forecast period?
Scope:
Markets covered: United
States, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, United Kingdom, Japan.
Primary research: 27 country-specific interviews with
thought leaders.
Epidemiology: Overweight, BMI 27-29 with 2 or more risk
factors (United States only); class I obesity, class II obesity, class III
obesity in adults aged 20 years or older; in Japan, where obesity is classified
as BMI ≥ 25, obese population only.
Emerging therapies: Phase
II: 6 drugs; Phase III: 2 drugs; preregistration: 3 drugs.