Introduction:
Last Updated 5 August 2010Despite the major impact psoriasis has on patients’ quality
of life, physicians believe many patients are untreated or undertreated,
offering important commercial opportunities for current and emerging agents
targeting this indication. During our ten-year forecast period, intense
competition between the TNF-a inhibitors etanercept and adalimumab and the
interleukin inhibitors ustekinumab and briakinumab will transform current treatment
algorithms and define new market leaders.
Questions Answered in This Report:
*
Interviewed dermatologists anticipate that the latest TNF-α
inhibitor to gain approval for psoriasis—adalimumab (Abbott/Eisai’s
Humira)—will displace the current market leader etanercept
(Amgen/Stiefel/Pfizer/Takeda’s Enbrel).
How will the potential launch of
biosimilar etanercept change the dynamics within the TNF-α class? Which
other emerging agents pose the highest threat to the TNF-α inhibitors?
*
Ustekinumab (Centocor Ortho
Biotech/Janssen-Cilag’s Stelara) was the first interleukin inhibitor approved
for psoriasis as its only indication in the United States and Europe in 2009.
How
are dermatologists incorporating this agent into their treatment algorithms for
patients with moderate-to-severe psoriasis? What are physicians’ perceptions of
its novel mechanism of action and minimal safety record?
*
Marketing strategies for ustekinumab and the emerging
interleukin inhibitor briakinumab (from Abbott) are particularly aggressive,
involving large long-term studies and head-to-head trials with etanercept.
Will
ustekinumab or briakinumab be positioned as first-line biologics over the next
ten years? How do dermatologists perceive the competitive potential of these
two drugs, and which one will emerge as the class sales leader by 2019?
*
Unlike previous years, when emerging topical agents offered
improvements primarily in formulation and/or administration convenience, the
current pipeline for mild psoriasis includes topicals with new mechanisms of
action.
What is the likely positioning of emerging topicals, and why? What
events will have the greatest impact on the market for mild psoriasis, and will
new sales leaders be established?Scope:
Markets covered: United States, France, Germany,
Italy, Spain, United Kingdom, Japan.
Primary research: 21 country-specific interviews with
thought-leading dermatologists.
Epidemiology: Diagnosed prevalence of four psoriasis
subpopulations—remission, mild, moderate, severe.
Population segments in market forecast:
Moderate-to-severe psoriasis and mild psoriasis.
Emerging therapies: Phase II: 12 drugs; Phase III: 3
drugs. Coverage of 1 select Phase I product.
Market forecast features: Using a proprietary
patient-flow model, we forecast population sizes and drug sales for the total
psoriasis population, the moderate to severe psoriasis subpopulation, and the
mild psoriasis subpopulation through 2019.