Introduction:Last Updated 13 December 2013
With a large and growing patient population, the asthma market is one of the most lucrative drug markets in the pharmaceutical industry. However, generic and/or branded-generic price erosion, increased product competition, and a difficult pricing and reimbursement environment will stabilize the asthma market over the forecast period despite opportunities for growth. The uptake of the first once-daily, long-acting beta2
agonist (LABA)/inhaled corticosteroid (ICS) fixed-dose combinations and novel anticytokine therapies within our ten-year forecast period will fuel growth of the market. Despite a high level of satisfaction with current therapies, opportunity still exists for the development of new agents that target the heterogeneous population of patients with severe, corticosteroid-refractory asthma. An emerging therapy that meets the needs of even a fraction of this underserved segment of the asthma market will have considerable sales potential.
Questions Answered in This Report:
By 2022, two once-daily LABA/ICS combinations will join this leading drug class in the asthma market. How will these new drugs fare in this competitive market space? Which of the emerging agents is poised for the greatest commercial success? How will entry of new LABA/ICS agents affect the sales of the current class leader, salmeterol/fluticasone propionate (GlaxoSmithKline’s Advair/Seretide/Adoair)?
Continued generic and/or branded-generic erosion will negatively impact sales of market-leading therapies, including salmeterol/fluticasone propionate and montelukast (Merck/Kyorin’s Singulair, generics), during the study period. How will the loss of brand exclusivity impact the asthma market? What are the key therapies in development that will sustain sales?
Asthma treatment will move toward a personalized medicine approach with the launch of four novel anticytokine agents near the middle of the study period. How do thought leaders view these emerging agents? Will the unmet need among severe asthmatics drive uptake of this new class of medications? How will these emerging agents compete against one another and the only approved biologic to date, omalizumab (Genentech/Novartis’s Xolair)?
Markets covered: United States, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, United Kingdom, Japan.
Primary research: 31 country-specific interviews with thought-leading pulmonologists and respiratory specialists.
Epidemiology: Diagnosed cases of asthma and diagnosed prevalent cases of active asthma; four subpopulations within diagnosed prevalent active asthma: intermittent, mild persistent, moderate persistent, and severe persistent asthma.
Emerging therapies: Phase II: 15 drugs; Phase III: 5 drugs; preregistration: 2 drugs; registration: 1 drug. Coverage of 2 select preclinical and Phase I products.
Market forecast features: Our market analysis evaluates 15 drug classes and more than 40 key therapies. We reconciled our 2012 asthma sales estimations based on epidemiological data, number of treated days, compliance, pricing, and country-specific prescribing practices with reported drug sales and used our patient-based model to forecast sales through 2022.