Introduction:
Last Updated 26 August 2010The HIV market is highly dynamic, with one of the most
active pipelines, significant investment in R&D, and continually evolving
treatment practices. Major-market sales for HIV antiretrovirals reached $11
billion in 2008, and we expect sales to grow to $16 billion in 2018. Among the
most interesting products in the pipeline is Gilead’s Quad, a complete fixed-dose
regimen in a once-daily pill with blockbuster potential.
Questions Answered in This Report:
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In 2008 Gilead announced the development of Quad, a complete
fixed-dose regimen in a once-daily pill.
What are experts saying about Quad?
How will physicians use Quad and what current drugs is it likely to replace?
What is the commercial opportunity for Quad and what effects will it have in
the overall market?
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Raltegravir and maraviroc completed their first year in the
market in most countries under study.
How have physicians received these
novel ARV agents, how are they incorporating them into their clinical practice,
and what are their future expectations? What is the commercial outlook for
maraviroc and raltegravir over the next ten years? What are the future threats
and opportunities facing these agents?
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Several follow-on agents to currently marketed products are in
late stages of development, namely Tibotec’s rilpivirine, Schering-Plough’s
vicriviroc, Gilead’s elvitegravir, and Avexa’s apricitabine.
What do experts
believe are the clinical advantages, if any, of these emerging therapies over
their predecessors? What is the commercial potential for these new therapies?
Which patient segments are likely recipients of these follow-on agents?
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Survival after HIV/AIDS diagnosis continues to improve as
treatment options advance.
How will improved patient survival impact the
number of prevalent cases over the next ten years? What are physicians looking
for in ARV regimens given the aging and longer life expectancy of HIV patients?
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New methodologies have been adopted by UNAIDS to calculate the
incidence and prevalence of HIV around the world.
How have these new
epidemiological calculations affected the estimates in the rates of diagnosed
and drug-treated patients? What are the expected trends in incidence,
prevalence, and percentage of diagnosed cases? How will these new estimates
affect market forecasts?Scope:
Markets covered: United States, France, Germany, Italy,
Spain, United Kingdom, Japan.
Primary research: 34 country-specific interviews with
infectious disease physicians specializing in the treatment of HIV.
Epidemiology: Total HIV prevalence; diagnosed
prevalence, drug-treated population, and newly diagnosed HIV cases.
Emerging therapies: Phase II: 29 drugs; Phase III: 4
drugs; registered/marketed: 30 drugs. Coverage of 41 select preclinical and
Phase I products.
Market forecast features: We provide a ten-year forecast
by individual agents in each of the seven markets. Uptake of emerging classes
and their use in combination with current ARVs is based on assumptions from
interviewed thought leaders and market analogues.