Introduction:
Last Updated 22 July 2010 Hepatitis C virus (HCV) is marked by a relatively large
prevalent population, with high unmet medical need due to the suboptimal
efficacy of current therapy. This level high unmet need makes HCV one of the
most active areas of drug development within infectious diseases, with a
plethora of therapies in development. The protease and polymerase inhibitors
are the most promising classes in development, and we expect these agents to
change the standard of care soon after they are introduced into the market. We
forecast the HCV market to dramatically expand in the coming years due, in
large measure, to the entry of novel drugs and their impact on both treatments
rates and the re-treatment of nonresponders.
Questions Answered in This Report:
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Several protease and polymerase inhibitors are in late-stage
development with unique efficacy, safety, and dosing profiles.
What do
experts think about these agents, and how will they integrate them into medical
practice? What products will be the leading therapies, and how will the second
wave of protease and polymerase inhibitors affect the market?
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HCV is characterized by high unmet medical need.
What do
physicians believe are the most important unmet needs in HCV? What emerging
therapies have the potential to fulfill these unmet needs?
*
A large proportion of patients infected with HCV remain
undiagnosed, and a sizeable population of patients have failed prior therapy
and remain viremic (and at risk for developing long-term complications).
How
will the population of patients eligible for treatment and the drug-treated
population change over the next ten years, particularly with the availability
of new, more-effective therapies? What will the key market drivers and
constraints be over the next decade?Scope:
Markets covered: United States, France, Germany, Italy,
Spain, United Kingdom, Japan.
Primary research: 35 country-specific interviews with
thought leaders.
Epidemiology: Prevalence of HCV infection; prevalence of
HCV viremia and nonviremia.
Population segments in market forecast: Treatment-naive,
treatment nonresponders.
Emerging therapies: Phase II: 26 drugs; Phase III and preregistered: 3 drugs. Coverage of 5 select preclinical and Phase I products.
Market forecast features: Using a proprietary
patient-flow model incorporating mortality, we forecast population sizes and
drug sales for treatment-naive and nonresponder patient segments through 2019.
Alternative market scenarios: (1) All oral combinations
of protease inhibitors and polymerase inhibitors are found to be at least as
effective as pegylated interferon-based combinations and (2) Chronic
maintenance therapy with oral protease and polymerase inhibitor combinations in
patients who do not respond to an interferon regimen is found to provide
significant clinical benefit.