Patient Flow Models

June 2014

Hepatitis C Virus Patient Flow Model - 2014

Introduction:

Affecting at least 170 million people worldwide, chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infections represent a serious public health crisis. Chronically-infected HCV patients are at risk for developing progressively more-severe liver fibrosis that can lead to cirrhosis of the liver, end-stage liver disease, or hepatocellular carcinoma, conditions which are associated with high mortality rates. The epidemiology of HCV is complex, owing to a large undiagnosed population, a high frequency of spontaneous viral clearance – which complicates epidemiological data collection and analysis – disease manifestations ranging from asymptomatic to life-threatening liver cirrhosis, and the circulation of numerous HCV genotypes with variable susceptibility to marketed therapies. The market opportunity for HCV is marked by a large prevalent population and historically high unmet medical need due to the suboptimal tolerability and efficacy of interferon-alpha based therapies. However, numerous HCV-specific, direct-acting antivirals, such as Gilead’s recently launched nucleotide polymerase inhibitor Sovaldi, will reach the market over the next several years as components of convenient, tolerable and highly efficacious all-oral, interferon-free regimens. Availability of these combinations has already revolutionized the standard of care for HCV patients and substantial public interest is expected to drive increased diagnosis. For these reasons, owing to the entry of highly effective, very well-tolerated therapies that will markedly increase treatment rates including among patients with severe fibrosis of the liver the number of HCV patients seeking and undergoing treatment will increase dramatically throughout the major pharmaceutical markets.

Scope:

The Hepatitis C Virus Patient Flow Model provides a highly granular and transparent framework for forecasting patient population dynamics in the HCV market during the 2011-2028 period segmented according to patient’s treatment history, infecting HCV genotype, and liver fibrosis. Combining Decision Resource’s best-in-class epidemiological modeling, rigorous analysis from commercial analysts with deep experience in this dynamic indication, primary survey data with 100 HCV-treating gastroenterologists and hepatologists, and leveraging insights from detailed, in-depth interviews with internationally respected HCV thought leading physicians. Using Decision Resource’s HCV Patient Flow Model, users can enter their own assumptions regarding genotype distribution, as well as diagnosis, treatment, and efficacy rates and/or validate the logic behind their own internal models. This interactive tool allows users to track changing disease and population dynamics over the 2011-2028 period on an annualized basis, improve their modeling accuracy with clearly depicted methods and transparent assumptions and identify untapped market potential within patient subpopulations.


Search Reports

Decision Resources Group brands include: