Introduction:
Agents entering the obesity market have significant
commercial potential thanks to the high prevalence of obesity and the
less-than-optimal efficacy and safety of current drugs. Competition in this
market will increase significantly over the next ten years as a result of the
anticipated launch of several novel therapies for obesity and the loss of
patent protection for orlistat (Roche’s Xenical, GlaxoSmithKline’s OTC Alli)
and sibutramine (Abbott Laboratories’ Meridia/Reductil). Emerging therapies, in
particular phentermine/topiramate (Vivus’s Qnexa) and Amylin/Takeda’s pramlintide/leptin
combination, will come close to satisfying the weight-loss efficacy that
physicians and patients expect. Going forward, uptake of these and other novel
drugs entering the market will greatly increase the value of the obesity
market, which will be approximately seven times greater in 2018 than in 2008.
The preliminary findings from the Sibutramine Cardiovascular Outcome Trial
(SCOUT), which led to Abbott’s suspension of sibutramine sales in Europe in
January 2010, will lead to increased scrutiny of sibutramine in the United
States and create more opportunity for emerging agents in European markets.
Questions Answered in This Report:
*
Weight loss is the most important goal in the treatment of
obesity.
What are the key primary and secondary clinical trial end points
used to evaluate new therapies? How do U.S. and European primary care
physicians weight specific efficacy end points and other drug attributes in
their prescribing decisions for obesity?
*
Orlistat is the 2008 major-market sales leader for obesity.
How
will orlistat and other current therapies fare against emerging therapies?
Which drugs do surveyed clinicians anticipate will supplant current therapies?
Which agents will suffer the most from competition from emerging agents?
*
In 2013, phentermine/topiramate (Vivus’s Qnexa) will emerge as
the gold-standard therapy in our Drug Comparator Model because of its superior
clinical profile compared with the current therapies evaluated in this study.
On
what clinical attributes is phentermine/topiramate most differentiated from its
competitors? Which current therapies are at greatest risk of being replaced by
phentermine/topiramate?Scope:
Key drug development opportunity tested in our target
product profiles for obesity: A weight-loss agent that offers greater
reduction of fasting blood glucose than orlistat for the treatment of obesity.
Physicians surveyed for this study: 60 U.S. and 31
European primary care physicians.
Comprehensive List of Therapies Included in Our Research and Modeling
Current Therapies
- Orlistat (Roche’s Xenical, GlaxoSmithKline’s OTC Alli)
- Sibutramine (Abbott Laboratories’ Meridia/Reductil)
- Phentermine (GlaxoSmithKline’s Fastin, UCB’s Ionamin, generics)
Emerging Therapies
- Phentermine/topiramate (Vivus’s Qnexa)
- Naltrexone SR/bupropion SR (Orexigen Therapeutics’ Contrave)
- Lorcaserin (Arena Pharmaceuticals)
- Liraglutide (Novo Nordisk’s Victoza)
- Pramlintide/leptin (Amylin Pharmaceuticals/Takeda)