Introduction:
Last Updated 6 January 2010 The prevalent COPD population is large, with an estimated 65
million individuals afflicted with the disease across the seven countries under
study (United States, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, United Kingdom, and
Japan), and the prevalent population is growing. With expanding aging
populations and rising diagnosis rates, the COPD market holds terrific
commercial promise for drug developers. Many questions remain to be answered,
such as how can patient treatment be optimized, what kind of drug would halt
disease progression, what is the best target for the treatment of COPD-specific
pulmonary inflammation, and what is the relationship between COPD in the lungs
and other concurrent disease states. These unanswered questions reflect a
considerable opportunity for drug developers in a market that is already large
but one that we expect will grow. Between 2008 and 2018, we project
major-market COPD sales to increase by 4.8% annually.
Questions Answered in This Report:
*
Underdiagnosis of COPD places a heavy burden not only on
patients who suffer from debilitating symptoms and significant declines in
their quality of life but also on payers that ultimately cover the costs of
emergency treatment and expensive hospitalizations. Despite low diagnosis rates
and modest drug-treatment rates, the market for COPD in 2008 reached $7.2
billion and we expect the market to increase to $11.5 billion in 2018.
What
factors will contribute to this market growth? How can drug developers harness
the growth in this market?
*
After the Towards a Revolution in COPD Health (TORCH) study
completed, controversy surrounding the safety of inhaled corticosteroid
(ICS)-containing drugs increased. Additionally, debate over the safety of
inhaled anticholinergics has begun even though the Understanding Potential
Long-Term Impacts on Function with Tiotropium (UPLIFT) trial demonstrated the
long-term safety of tiotropium (Boehringer Ingelheim/Pfizer’s Spiriva).
How
do these controversies impact physicians’ perceptions and/or prescribing of
these agents? What do physicians think of the data supporting COPD drugs? How
will these controversies impact the market for COPD drugs?
*
Drugs launching into the COPD market before 2018 will consist
mainly of once-daily dosed products and/or combinations of drugs. Several more
long-acting beta
2 agonist (LABA)/ICS combinations will launch
creating a more crowded and competitive drug class. Combinations of a
long-acting muscarinic antagonist (LAMA) and a LABA will also make their debut
during the forecast period.
How successful will monotherapies be in the
future COPD market? How will LABA/ICS combinations fare in a more
competitive environment? How will LABA/LAMA combinations be used by physicians?
What is their market potential?Scope:
Markets: United States, France, Germany,
Italy, Spain, United Kingdom, Japan.
Primary research: 22 country-specific interviews with
thought-leading pulmonologists.
Epidemiology: Prevalence of COPD in patients aged 40 or
older; subpopulations by severity (mild, moderate, severe/very severe); growth
potential of the COPD population over the 2008-2018 study period.
Emerging therapies: Phase II: 33 drugs; Phase III: 4
drugs; Preregistration: 3 drugs; registered: 50 drugs. Coverage of 10 select
preclinical and Phase I products.
Market forecast features: We reconciled our 2008 COPD
sales estimations based on epidemiological data, treated days, compliance,
annual pricing, and country-specific prescribing trends with reported COPD
sales and used our patient-based model to forecast sales through 2018.
Alternative market scenarios: We provide two alternative
market scenarios. One scenario assumes the launch of
GlaxoSmithKline/Theravance’s GW-642444/fluticasone furoate, Novartis’s
indacaterol/mometasone, and GlaxoSmithKline’s fluticasone furoate into markets
where restrictive pricing policies are in place (France, Italy, Spain). A
second alternative market scenario assumes that Nycomed/Mitsubishi Tanabe’s
roflumilast (Daxas) secures a commercialization partner in the United States
and the drug obtains approval in this region.