Introduction:
Last Updated 2 September 2010With a large and growing patient population, the asthma
market is one of the most lucrative drug markets in the pharmaceutical
industry. However, generic and/or branded-generic price erosion, increased
product competition, and a difficult reimbursement environment will drive a
decline in major-market sales over our ten-year forecast period. Moreover, the
launch of multiple emerging therapies in lucrative, well-established drug
classes will spur
increased competition; most notably, several
additional long-acting beta
2 agonist (LABA)/inhaled corticosteroid
(ICS) combinations are expected to launch within the next ten years. Despite a
high level of satisfaction with current therapies, opportunity still exists for
the development of new agents that target the heterogeneous population of
patients with severe, corticosteroid-refractory asthma. An emerging therapy
that serves even a niche of this underserved segment of the asthma market has
considerable sales potential.
Questions Answered in This Report:
*
In 2019, eight LABA/ICS combination therapies will be marketed
for asthma, compared with three in 2009.
What attributes will differentiate
one LABA/ICS from another? Which of the emerging agents is poised for the
greatest commercial success? How will entry of new LABA/ICS agents affect the
sales of the current class leader, salmeterol/fluticasone (GlaxoSmithKline’s
Advair/Seretide/Adoair)?
*
Generic and/or branded-generic entry will erode the prices of
market-leading therapies during the study period.
How will the loss of brand
exclusivity of the two market leaders—salmeterol/fluticasone propionate and
montelukast (Merck/Kyorin’s Singulair)—impact the asthma market during the
study period?
*
The asthma market is saturated with a variety of safe and
effective therapies, and the entry of generic agents into the market will drive
down the cost of many of these therapies during the study period.
Considering
that heightened cost-consciousness will affect healthcare budgets and
reimbursement restrictions, how will new agents that offer incremental
improvements over existing drugs compete with older, less expensive agents? How
will uptake of novel agents differ across the U.S., European, and Japanese
markets?
*
Over the 2009-2019 study period, the asthma marketplace will be
defined by product life-cycle management and incremental product development
(e.g., new formulations, new combinations, new delivery devices).
How do
thought leaders view emerging agents that offer improved dosing convenience?
Will physicians be inclined to switch patients from an effective current
therapy to a new drug that may improve compliance?Scope:
Markets covered: United States, France, Germany, Italy,
Spain, United Kingdom, Japan.
Primary research: 29 country-specific interviews with
thought-leading pulmonologists.
Epidemiology: Diagnosed 12-month prevalent cases of
asthma and diagnosed current prevalent cases of asthma; diagnosed prevalence of
four subpopulations: mild intermittent, mild persistent, moderate persistent,
and severe persistent asthma.
Emerging therapies: Phase II: 26 drugs; Phase III: 4
drugs; preregistration: 1 drugs; registered: 2 drugs. Coverage of 4 select
preclinical and Phase I products.
Market forecast features: Our market analysis evaluates
more than 10 drug classes and more than 40 key therapies.
Alternative market scenarios: (1) If the once-daily
therapies fluticasone furoate and vilanterol/fluticasone furoate launch in
France, Italy, and Spain, and the once-daily therapy indacaterol/mometasone
launches in France and Italy, (2) if the once-daily LABA/ICS combinations
vilanterol/fluticasone furoate and indacaterol/mometasone are approved for the
treatment of COPD in the United States but not for the treatment of asthma. (3) if generic versions of albuterol, fluticasone propionate, formoterol/budesonide, and salmterol/fluticasone propionate launch in the United States.