Introduction:
Last Updated 5 January 2010: The Alzheimer’s disease (AD) market is characterized by a
rapidly growing patient population still treated with symptomatic therapies
that do not halt the underlying cause of the disease. Disease-modifying
therapies are a critical need in this market, and several agents with this
potential are likely to launch during our forecast period, dramatically
expanding the AD therapy market.
Questions Answered in This Report:
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Several potentially disease-modifying therapies are likely to
launch for AD in the next ten years, dramatically changing the landscape of the
AD market.
Which of the four potentially disease-modifying therapies
(Johnson & Johnson/Pfizer’s bapineuzumab, Eli Lilly’s solanezumab, Baxter’s IVIg, and Eli
Lilly’s semagacestat) will be first to market? How will these drugs launched
closely together perform in this market? What factors will constrain the use of
disease-modifying drugs?
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Novel therapies with the potential to slow the course of AD are
most promising, but they may be associated with greater safety risks.
What
will the impact of disease-modifying therapies be on the use of the
acetylcholinesterase inhibitors donepezil (Eisai/Pfizer’s Aricept, Bracco’s
Memac), galantamine (Shire Pharmaceuticals/Janssen/Ortho-McNeil Neurologics’
Reminyl/Razadyne/Razadyne ER, generics), and rivastigmine (Novartis’s
Exelon/Exelon Patch, Esteve/Biofutura’s Prometax) and the NMDA receptor
antagonist memantine (Merz/Grupo Grunenthal’s Axura, Lundbeck’s Ebixa, Forest
Laboratories’ Namenda)?
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Experts are increasingly enthusiastic about the monoclonal
antibodies bapineuzumab and solanezumab. However, both drugs may have
potentially serious side effects.
What do experts say about their safety
profiles? To which patient segments will neurologists prescribe such drugs?
What will happen to the AD market if these antibodies fail to launch due to
safety concerns?
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The development of improved
diagnostic tools will not only enable earlier and more-accurate diagnosis of AD
but also influence therapy selection and treatment rates. We provide separate
estimates for the prevalence of AD and pre-AD.
Which emerging therapies will
neurologists prescribe to pre-AD patients, and what is the market potential of
this population?Scope:
Markets covered: United States, France, Germany, Italy,
Spain, United Kingdom, Japan.
Primary research: 32 country-specific interviews with
thought leaders.
Epidemiology: Prevalence of AD and pre-AD (a population
of patients who will likely convert to AD within two years) by region.
Population segments in the market forecast: AD, pre-AD.
Emerging therapies: Phase II: 28 drugs; Phase III: 5
drugs; coverage of 7 preclinical and Phase I products.
Market forecast features: Incorporating pharmacological
treatment of mild, moderate, and severe AD, we forecast drug sales for AD and
pre-AD populations through 2018.
Alternate market scenarios: (1) monoclonal antibodies do
not achieve regulatory approval because of a low benefit-to-risk ratio; (2)
monoclonal antibodies have severely restricted patient share owing to safety
concerns; (3) monoclonal antibodies are prescribed only to ApoE ε4 noncarriers; (4) diagnostic tools
and biomarkers for AD do not launch by 2018.