Introduction:
The stage III colon cancer market largely consists of two
therapies: FOLFOX4 and CAPOX; few therapies are in development for this
indication. Entering the adjuvant stage III colon cancer market is more
achievable if the therapy already has proven efficacy and tolerability in metastatic
colorectal cancer (mCRC). Indeed, no therapies are in Phase III trials for
stage III colon cancer that are not already indicated for mCRC. We forecast the
launch of two therapies into the stage III colon cancer market during our
2006-2016 study period: bevacizumab (Roche/Genentech/Chugai’s Avastin) and
cetuximab (Bristol-Myers Squibb/ImClone Systems/Merck Serono’s Erbitux), both
of which are currently available in the metastatic setting.
Questions Answered in This Report:
*
Improving therapies’ effect on overall survival and disease-free
survival is a key goal in the treatment of stage III colon cancer.
What are the
key primary and secondary clinical trial end points with which new therapies
are evaluated? How do oncologists weight efficacy measures and other drug
attributes in their prescribing decisions for stage III colon cancer?
*
With no novel agents launched since 2004, FOLFOX4 has become
the standard of care for stage III colon cancer and the highest-selling
regimen.
Do thought leaders expect emerging therapies to offer significant
improvements in efficacy, safety and tolerability, or delivery over FOLFOX4?
Which emerging therapies pose the greatest threat to FOLFOX4? How will
oncologists incorporate new therapies into their treatment of patients with
stage III colon cancer?
*
Although not approved for use in either the mCRC or the
adjuvant stage III colon cancer setting, CAPOX is the 2006 clinical gold
standard in our drug comparator model because of its superior clinical profile
over the current therapies evaluated in this study.
What attributes do thought
leaders believe differentiate this drug from competing current and emerging
therapies? Will any drugs in development challenge CAPOX as the future gold
standard in 2011 or 2016?Scope:
Key drug development opportunity tested in our target
product profiles for stage III colon cancer: A therapy that improves
disease-free survival over FOLFOX4 at three years for the treatment of stage
III colon cancer.
Physicians surveyed for this study: 100 U.S. oncologists.
Comprehensive List of Therapies Included in Our Research and
Modeling
Current therapies:
- FOLFOX4 (5-fluorouracil [5-FU; generics], leucovorin [LV; generics], and oxaliplatin [Sanofi-Aventis’s Eloxatin/Eloxatine, Yakult’s Elplat,
generics])
- CAPOX (Roche’s capecitabine [Xeloda] and oxaliplatin)
- Capecitabine (Roche’s Xeloda)
Emerging therapies:
- Bevacizumab (Roche/Genentech/Chugai’s Avastin)
- Cetuximab (Bristol-Myers Squibb/ImClone Systems/Merck Serono’s
Erbitux)
About DecisionBase
Colon Cancer (Stage III): Therapies Must Increase Survival
over FOLFOX to Reach Blockbuster Status is a DecisionBase 2008 report from
Decision Resources. DecisionBase 2008 combines market forecasts with clinical
and commercial end points to assess market share projections in 35 indications.
These outputs are driven by quantitative and qualitative primary research.
DecisionBase 2008 provides detailed market share, patient share, and
price-per-day projections for emerging drugs in development. The market share
projections are based on prescriber surveys that compare physicians’
expectations of a potential target product profile with an emerging product
profile of the leading drugs in development.