Primary Factors that Will Drive Market Growth are the Uptake of Humira, Simponi, Vedolizumab and Tofacitinib, According to Findings from Decision Resources
December 19, 2012-Burlington, Mass. –Decision Resources, one of the world’s leading research and advisory firms for pharmaceutical and healthcare issues, finds that the ulcerative colitis drug market will double over the next decade, increasing to $3.7 billion in 2021 in the United States, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the United Kingdom and Japan. The uptake of two premium-priced tumor necrosis factor-alpha (TNF-alpha) inhibitors—Abbott/Eisai’s Humira and Janssen/Merck/Mitsubishi Tanabe’s Simponi—and two novel therapies, Takeda’s cell adhesion molecule (CAM) inhibitor vedolizumab and Pfizer’s oral Janus-activated kinase inhibitor tofacitinib, will primarily drive growth during this period, as will the expanding number of diagnosed prevalent cases of ulcerative colitis.
The upcoming Pharmacor advisory service entitled Ulcerative Colitis, which will be published soon, forecasts that increased physician acceptance of TNF-alpha inhibitors for the treatment of moderate to severe disease and patient preference for convenient subcutaneous administration will fuel the uptake of newer TNF-alpha inhibitors Humira and Simponi through the 2021 study period. Simponi, owing to its perceived greater efficacy than that of Humira in separate Phase III trials and favorable gastroenterologist opinion, will challenge intravenous infliximab’s (Janssen/Merck/Mitsubishi Tanabe’s Remicade) standing as the most frequently prescribed agent in the TNF-alpha inhibitor class. However, Remicade will remain the patient-share leader among the TNF-alpha inhibitors, maintaining a relatively constant patient share across the G7 countries, based on its well-established efficacy. Sales of Simponi are expected to overtake Remicade’s sales in 2017 based largely on the former’s premium price and assumed high dosing in ulcerative colitis, driving the market’s growth as the new sales leader.
The launches of two promising premium-priced novel agents, vedolizumab and tofacitinib, in 2014 and starting in 2016 respectively, will contribute to increasing sales over the ten-year forecast period, gaining most initial use in the TNF-refractory population.
“These agents will likely extend the treatment algorithm by offering, for the first time, additional lines of therapy for patients with inadequate response to the TNF-alpha inhibitors,” said Decision Resources Analyst Kathrina Quinn, Ph.D. “Although the TNF-refractory market is relatively limited in size, the high unmet need for treatments that cater to this population and potentially delay or prevent colectomy will drive major-market sales of approximately $740 million in 2021, constituting about 20 percent total market share.”
Towards the end of the forecast period, Decision Resources anticipates that vedolizumab and tofacitinib will begin to overtake adalimumab’s use as gastroenterologists move to another drug class after trying up to two TNF-alpha inhibitors. Even though vedolizumab is expected to launch first, tofacitinib’s uptake will likely overtake that of vedolizumab’s based on the strengths of its oral delivery and postmarketing safety data for other immune indications.
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