Key Drivers of Market Growth Will Include the Uptake of Humira, Simponi, Vedolizumab and Tofacitinib, According to Findings from Decision Resources

December 19, 2011—Burlington, Mass.—Decision Resources, one of the world’s leading research and advisory firms for pharmaceutical and healthcare issues, finds that the uptake of Abbott/Eisai’s Humira and Janssen Biotech/Merck/Mitsubishi Tanabe’s Simponi as well as the use of two novel therapies, Millennium’s vedolizumab and Pfizer’s tofacitinib, will be key factors driving the ulcerative colitis drug market to increase from $1.7 billion in 2010 to $3 billion in 2020 in the United States, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the United Kingdom and Japan. Market growth will also be fueled by the expanding number of diagnosed prevalent cases of ulcerative colitis in the United States.

The Pharmacor advisory service entitled Ulcerative Colitis, which will be published by the end of the month, finds that the subcutaneous tumor necrosis factor-alpha (TNF-alpha) inhibitors Humira and Simponi, which are in-late stage clinical development for moderate to severe ulcerative colitis, are expected to launch for the indication in 2012 and 2013, respectively. Decision Resources anticipates that increased physician acceptance of TNF-alpha inhibitors for treatment of moderate to severe ulcerative colitis and patient preference for more conveniently delivered subcutaneous anti-TNF-alpha therapies will drive uptake of these two emerging agents. Humira, in particular—given its earlier entry into the ulcerative colitis market and physician familiarity with the agent as a result of its use in Crohn’s disease—will challenge intravenous infliximab (Janssen Biotech/Merck/Mitsubishi Tanabe’s Remicade) as the most frequently prescribed TNF-alpha inhibitor. However, based on its well-established efficacy, Remicade will remain both the patient share and sales leader for the drug class in 2020 for ulcerative colitis.

According to the findings, a new stage in the evolving ulcerative colitis market will be marked by the launches of two promising novel agents, the cell adhesion molecule inhibitor, vedolizumab, and the Janus-activated kinase inhibitor, tofacitinib. Vedolizumab will launch for ulcerative colitis in 2013 and tofacitinib will launch in 2015.

“Currently in Phase III of development for moderate to severe ulcerative colitis but with scant robust clinical data at present to confirm positive Phase II results, vedolizumab and tofacitinib will likely extend the treatment algorithm by offering—for the first time—additional lines of therapy for patients with inadequate response to the TNF-alpha inhibitors,” said Decision Resources Analyst Kathrina Quinn, Ph.D. “Although the TNF-refractory market is relatively limited in size, the high unmet need for treatments that cater to this population and potentially delay or prevent colectomy will drive healthy sales of approximately $500 million in 2020.”

The findings also reveal that although the acute ulcerative colitis population represents a larger share of the total drug-treated population for the disease, sales of maintenance therapies in 2010 accounted for nearly three-quarters of major-market ulcerative colitis sales, due to the fact that treatment duration in the maintenance setting is much longer than in the acute setting. The chronic, long-term use of TNF-alpha inhibitors—and, to a lesser extent, of novel therapies projected to launch by 2020—will contribute to an increase in sales of maintenance therapies as well as an increase in sales of acute therapies, although growth in the acute setting will not be as robust as growth in the maintenance setting.  

About Decision Resources
Decision Resources (www.decisionresources.com) is a world leader in market research publications, advisory services and consulting designed to help clients shape strategy, allocate resources and master their chosen markets. Decision Resources is a Decision Resources Group company.
 

About Decision Resources Group
Decision Resources Group is a cohesive portfolio of companies that offers best-in-class, high-value information and insights on important sectors of the healthcare industry. Clients rely on this analysis and data to make informed decisions. Please visit Decision Resources Group at www.DecisionResourcesGroup.com.

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