Key Drivers of Market Growth Will Be the Uptake of Humira, Simponi, Vedolizumab and Tofacitinib, According to Findings from Decision Resources
October 9, 2013—Burlington, Mass. —Decision Resources, one of the world’s leading research and advisory firms for pharmaceutical and healthcare issues, finds that the ulcerative colitis drug market will increase from $2.1 billion in 2012 to $3.6 billion in 2022 in the United States, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the United Kingdom and Japan. The uptake of two premium-priced tumor necrosis factor-alpha (TNF-alpha) inhibitors—AbbVie/Eisai’s Humira and Janssen/Merck/Mitsubishi Tanabe’s Simponi—and two novel therapies, Takeda’s cell adhesion molecule (CAM) inhibitor vedolizumab and Pfizer’s oral Janus-activated kinase inhibitor tofacitinib, will primarily drive growth during this period, accounting for approximately half of the market share in 2022.
The Pharmacor advisory service entitled Ulcerative Colitis forecasts that increased physician acceptance of TNF-alpha inhibitors for the treatment of moderate to severe disease and patient preference for convenient subcutaneous administration will fuel the uptake of newer TNF-alpha inhibitors Humira and Simponi through the 2022 study period. In particular, Simponi - approved for ulcerative colitis in the United States and Europe in 2013 - will challenge intravenous infliximab (Janssen/Merck/Mitsubishi Tanabe’s Remicade) as the most frequently prescribed agent in the TNF-alpha inhibitor class, owing to its perceived greater efficacy than that of Humira in separate Phase III trials and favorable gastroenterologist opinion. However, Remicade will remain the patient-share leader among the TNF-alpha inhibitors, maintaining a relatively constant patient share across the G7 countries, based on its well-established efficacy. Simponi is expected to overtake Remicade as sales leader in 2019 based largely on the former’s premium price and approved high dosing in ulcerative colitis.
The launches of two promising premium-priced novel agents, vedolizumab and tofacitinib, in 2014 and 2017, respectively, will contribute to increasing sales over the next ten years, gaining use initially in the TNF-refractory population primarily.
“The anticipated launches of vedolizumab and tofacitinib will contribute to growth of the UC market through 2022,” said Decision Resources Analyst Kathrina Quinn, Ph.D. “Although the TNF-refractory market is relatively limited in size, the high unmet need for treatments that cater to this population will drive major-market sales of approximately $690 million in 2022, constituting about 20 percent total market share.”
Towards the end of the forecast period, Decision Resources anticipates that vedolizumab will begin to overtake adalimumab’s use as gastroenterologists move to another drug class after trying up to two TNF-alpha inhibitors. Tofacitinib will challenge vedolizumab’s use upon its later entry to the market, however its use will likely not overtake that of vedolizumab’s based on anticipated confirmation of vedolizumab’s promising efficacy in Phase III trials by the time of tofacitinib’s launch, and its perceived better safety profile.
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