Farletuzumab and Vintafolide Will Struggle to Capture Market Share from Angiogenesis Inhibitors Including Avastin, According to Findings from Decision Resources
December 10, 2012-Burlington, Mass. –Decision Resources, one of the world’s leading research and advisory firms for pharmaceutical and healthcare issues, finds that the ovarian cancer drug market will more than triple over the next decade, increasing from $460 million in 2011 to $1.4 billion in 2021 in the United States, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the United Kingdom and Japan. Market growth will be primarily driven by the penetration of new therapies into several market segments.
The Pharmacor Ovarian Cancer advisory service finds that angiogenesis inhibitors are set to dominate the ovarian cancer market by 2021, as this drug class is expected to account for more than 60 percent of sales. Roche/Genentech/Chugai’s Avastin, already launched in Europe for the treatment of advanced first-line and platinum-sensitive ovarian cancer, will become engrained into treatment practice across the major markets through 2021. Moreover, Amgen’s AMG-386, which targets angiogenesis via a novel target, angiopoetin/Tie2, is also set to enter advanced disease treatment settings.
The findings also reveal that the emerging folate receptor-targeted drug class is set to see two drug launches within the forecast period, Eisai/Morphotek’s farletuzumab and Merck’s vintafolide.
“Despite forecasted approvals, the well-validated pathway of angiogenesis in this disease will mean both farletuzumab and vintafolide will struggle to capture market share from Avastin and AMG-386,” said Decision Resources Analyst Amy Duval, M. Res.
The Pharmacor Patient Flow Model for Ovarian Cancer, which utilizes Decision Resources’ proprietary suite of epidemiological cancer models that include the modeling of recurrent cases of ovarian cancer, finds that—based on historical trends in recurrence risk as well as an increasing percentage of early-stage patients receiving drug treatment—the number of drug-treated early-stage cases that develop recurrent advanced disease will decrease by around 3 percent per year through 2031.
Despite the projected decrease in the number of early-stage cases developing recurrent advanced ovarian cancer per year, forecasted improvements in the observed survival in the advanced setting will result in a modest increase in the number of women living with advanced ovarian cancer over the next 20 years. The forecasted increase in the percentage of drug-treated early-stage cases and the associated decrease in recurrence risk in the early stage will limit the growth of drug-treatable populations in the advanced disease settings across the seven largest mature pharmaceutical markets over the next two decades.
Decision Resources’ Pharmacor advisory service offers clients in the biopharmaceutical industry the most up-to-date information available on commercially significant disease topics.
About Pharmacor Patient Flow Models
By utilizing our proprietary Pharmacor epidemiological data, Decision Resources now provides Pharmacor Patient Flow Models covering bladder cancer, breast cancer, colorectal cancer, head and neck cancer, hepatocellular carcinoma, gastric cancer, malignant melanoma, non-small-cell lung cancer, ovarian cancer, pancreatic cancer, prostate cancer, renal cell carcinoma, sarcoma and thyroid cancer. Using Pharmacor Patient Flow Models, users can build their own oncology patient flow model and/or validate the logic behind their own internal models. This interactive tool allows users to track changing disease and population dynamics over a 20-year annualized forecast, improve their modeling accuracy with clearly depicted methods and transparent assumptions and identify untapped market potential within lines of therapy. Pharmacor Patient Flow Models is available as an add-on product to the Pharmacor advisory service.
About Decision Resources
Decision Resources (www.decisionresources.com) is a world leader in market research publications, advisory services and consulting designed to help clients shape strategy, allocate resources and master their chosen markets. Decision Resources is a Decision Resources Group company.
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