Oral Agents from Novartis/Mitsubishi Tanabe Pharma, Biogen Idec, Sanofi and Teva/Active Biotech Will Capture a 29 Percent Market Share in 2020, According to Findings from Decision Resources
September 27, 2011—Burlington, Mass.—Decision Resources, one of the world’s leading research and advisory firms for pharmaceutical and healthcare issues, finds that the launch of several premium-priced novel disease-modifying therapies, including four oral agents, will drive the multiple sclerosis (MS) drug market to increase from $8.9 billion in 2010 to $11.5 billion in 2015 in the United States, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the United Kingdom and Japan. From 2015 to 2020, owing to generic erosion, market sales will then contract modestly to $10.6 billion in 2020.
The findings from the Pharmacor topic entitled Multiple Sclerosis
reveal that the approval of new disease-modifying products are beginning to usher in a new era in the treatment of MS. Oral agents in particular are forecast to capture a 29 percent market share in 2020, with Novartis/Mitsubishi Tanabe Pharma’s first-to-market oral agent Gilenya and Biogen Idec’s late-stage emerging therapy BG-12 each attaining blockbuster status thanks to robust efficacy, convenience and acceptable side effects. Owing to more-limited advantages, other late-stage oral drugs, Teva/Active Biotech’s laquinimod and Sanofi’s Aubagio, are each forecast to obtain peak-year sales in excess of $450 million.
New parenteral treatments will also contribute meaningfully to market growth. In light of promising Phase II results and growing physician interest, Roche/Genentech’s ocrelizumab is forecast to earn major-market MS sales approaching $1 billion in 2020. Despite intensifying competition, lingering safety concerns and mixed Phase III results, Genzyme/Sanofi/Bayer HealthCare’s Lemtrada (currently marketed as Campath/MabCampath) is expected to garner sales of approximately $630 million in 2020. At this time, both of these intravenously-delivered monoclonal antibodies are expected to serve as later-line options for relapsing MS patients.
Emerging MS agents appear poised to help fulfill the continued need for treatment alternatives in a field striving towards individualized medicine, assuming long-term safety and clinical experience prove favorable. While substantial research is ongoing to improve immunological disease control in MS, however, ample need remains for therapies that halt or reverse disease progression through neuroprotective, remyelinative or neuroreparative mechanisms.
“Ongoing trials of fingolimod and ocrelizumab in primary progressive MS are of interest to key opinion leaders, but no immune-targeted therapy has shown substantial efficacy in progressive forms of MS to date and interviewed experts are unconvinced that these studies will report positive outcomes,” said Decision Resources Analyst Jonathan Searles. “As a result, the forecasted absence of neuroprotective or neurorestorative agents will extend the need for effective treatments in this highly underserved subgroup over the next decade.”
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