Generic Erosion of Market Leaders Will Be Offset by the First Once-Daily LABA/ICS Combination and Emerging Anticytokine Agents, According to Findings from Decision Resources
December 18, 2013 - Burlington, Mass.
– Decision Resources, one of the world’s leading research and advisory firms for pharmaceutical and healthcare issues, finds that the drug market for asthma will remain relatively flat through 2022. Currently, the market is driven by maintenance therapies that successfully treat patients with mild and moderate disease, including market leaders GlaxoSmithKline’s long-acting beta2 agonist (LABA)/inhaled corticosteroid (ICS) combination Advair/Seretide/Adoair and Merck’s leukotriene inhibitor Singulair (montelukast). These leading agents are already beginning to face generic erosion that will lead their sales to decline.
The Pharmacor advisory service entitled Asthma
finds that the overall market for asthma will remain stable, increasingly slightly from $15.3 billion in 2012 to $16.2 billion in 2022 in the United States, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the United Kingdom and Japan. However, the makeup of the biggest sellers in the market will differ in 2022. As the current market leaders undergo generic erosion, including a substantial 67 percent drop in montelukast’s sales over the forecast period, asthma sales in later years will be driven by the uptake of GlaxoSmithKline/Theravance’s once-daily LABA/ICS combination Breo/Relvar and by four novel anticytokine agents that will serve part of the unmet need in the severe, refractory asthma population.
“Physicians are waiting for more options for their severe, refractory patients beyond oral corticosteroids and the lone biologic approved for asthma, Genentech/Novartis’s Xolair, so they are eager to use the new biologics in specific patients,” said Decision Resources Analyst Colleen E. Albacker, Ph.D. “Although we anticipate low patient share for these emerging agents, their high price tags will help to offset declining sales due to generic entry of the current market leaders.”
The report also finds that Breo/Relvar will perform strongly and act as another key growth driver in the asthma market. Breo/Relvar’s once-daily administration will be the first to offer dosing improvement over currently-marketed twice-daily LABA/ICS combinations, and an aggressive marketing campaign will enable it to begin to challenge Advair’s dominance in all major markets, although Advair will remain the asthma sales leader.
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