The Total Alzheimer’s Disease Drug Market Will Nearly Triple, Increasing from $5.4 Billion in 2010 to $14.4 Billion in 2020, According to Findings from Decision Resources
March 6, 2012—Burlington, Mass.—Decision Resources, one of the world’s leading research and advisory firms for pharmaceutical and healthcare issues, finds that, based on clinical data and the opinions of interviewed thought leaders, Eli Lilly’s anti-beta-amyloid therapy solanezumab will earn Decision Resources’ proprietary clinical gold standard status for the treatment of mild to moderate Alzheimer’s disease in 2015, following its launch for the indication beginning in 2014. Owing to its competitive advantages in efficacy, solanezumab will displace Decision Resources’ current proprietary clinical gold standard, the combination of donepezil (Eisai/Pfizer’s Aricept, Aricept ODT/Aricept Evess, Aricept 23, Bracco’s Memac, generics) plus memantine (Merz Pharmaceuticals/Grünenthal’s Axura, Lundbeck’s Ebixa, Forest Laboratories’ Namenda, Daiichi Sankyo’s Memary).
Decision Resources’ analysis of the Alzheimer’s disease drug market also finds that surveyed U.S. neurologists and managed care organization pharmacy directors agree that the effect on cognitive decline is one of the attributes that most influences their decisions regarding prescribing and formulary status determinations, respectively, in mild to moderate Alzheimer’s disease. Interviewed thought leaders perceive that, based on their mechanisms of action, solanezumab, Janssen Alzheimer Immunotherapy*/Pfizer’s anti-beta-amyloid therapy bapineuzumab and Baxter’s intravenous immunoglobulin G (IVIg) product Gammagard/Kiovig are potentially disease-modifying therapies and, as such, have advantages over sales-leading donepezil on this attribute.
The findings also reveal that the total Alzheimer’s disease drug market will nearly triple over the next decade, increasing from $5.4 billion in 2010 to $14.4 billion in 2020 in the United States, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, United Kingdom and Japan. A key driver of market growth will be the launches of solanezumab and bapineuzumab—two agents currently in Phase III trials that could demonstrate greater efficacy than currently available agents and, in particular, may affect disease progression.
“The launches of solanezumab and bapineuzumab will profoundly alter the therapeutic landscape of the Alzheimer’s disease market,” said Decision Resources Analyst Nadja Rozovsky, Ph.D. “These two agents will be the first biological agents and the first potentially disease-modifying therapies in this market and, as such, are expected to command significant price premiums over currently available therapies. Although initial uptake is expected to be slow due to safety concerns, solanezumab and bapineuzumab will account for nearly 60 percent of the total Alzheimer’s disease market by 2020, representing sales of approximately $8 billion.”
*Janssen Alzheimer Immunotherapy is a subsidiary of Johnson & Johnson.
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